2014年7月3日木曜日

Context effects produced by question orders reveal quantum nature of human judgments

Zheng Wang, Tyler Solloway, Richard M. Shiffrin, and Jerome R. Busemeyer
PNAS 2014 vol. 111 no. 26, 9431–9436.

「量子」意思決定理論について。
ついに総合誌にも載るようになってきましたね。
(ただし、”PNAS direct submission” ではなくて、NAS会員からの寄稿)

The hypothesis that human reasoning obeys the laws of quantum rather than classical probability has been used in recent years to explain a variety of seemingly “irrational” judgment and decision-making findings. This article provides independent evidence for this hypothesis based on an a priori prediction, called the quantum question (QQ) equality, concerning the effect of asking attitude questions successively in different orders. We empirically evaluated the predicted QQ equality using 70 national representative surveys and two laboratory experiments that manipulated question orders. Each national study contained 651–3,006 participants. The results provided strong support for the predicted QQ equality. These findings suggest that quantum probability theory, initially invented to explain noncommutativity of measurements in physics, provides a simple account for a surprising regularity regarding measurement order effects in social and behavioral science.

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